2022 to 2023

Review of 2022:

In the first few months of 2022, I wrote some posts related to the Bible commentary project I have wanted to work on (which I did work on toward the end of 2021). Starting in March and April, I moved toward the main work of the year, which was a set of book reviews, and other posts, related to culture, family, nationhood, politics, the "exilic-familial", etc. I finished all that at the end of September. Then, I didn't do much writing for the rest of the year. I was trying to figure out what to do next. I did restart, but then stopped again, the Bible commentary project. I also wrote some movie reviews, but stopped doing that.

I found myself somewhat losing interest in effective altruism. Maybe wanting to get some distance after 10 years under the influence of it, and about 2.5 years of more intensive study of it. Also the big publicity push for What We Owe the Future made me feel like EA's real work was coming to a close (being deeply in touch with reality however it could turn out to be) and it was headed toward cashing in its chips. I don't think EA will miss my occasional posts on the EA Forum, so I don't feel committed to them. I never felt like I really belonged (or really didn't belong) to the EA movement, but it seems like I could turn my attention elsewhere since there isn't definitely a place for me in it. Perhaps in the future things will change and it might make sense for me to pay attention to them more.

I moved toward and away from Twitter during 2022, and got very close to deleting my account, but I want to leave up my old tweets, especially those related to Establishedness and Loving God.

Comparison of expectations with reality

I predicted that I would keep working on the cross book, MSLN book, and Bible commentary, and I did not do so very much. I predicted that I would not write blog posts, but that I did.

I predicted that I wouldn't interact with the Christian humanists much, and that proved true. I mentioned making contact with EACH (Effective Altruism for Christians) and said that I might interact with them in 2022, but I mostly didn't.

I had a mixed record in the quality of my predictions. These predictions don't matter too much, practically speaking, but it is interesting to ask why I was correct and incorrect in the way I was.

Possibly I was able to predict my (non-)experience with the Christian humanists because a) I had no real connection with any person in the scene and b) I did not really love the scene. If you decide to ignore something, and you succeed, then you forget about it unless something outside you (your desires, memories, mental ties; or someone else drawing you in) brings it back to your attention. If I were asked about a) and b), could I have understood at the time last year that those obtained, or could that only be seen in hindsight? I'm not sure, but I think it's possible I would have seen those things if I had thought to ask.

In that case, maybe in the future, if I am evaluating some social element of my life, I can predict that if a) I am not really into it deeply and b) I have no real social tie with anyone in it, I will probably not think about it and won't get back into it if I choose to ignore it. However, it's always possible that like in the case of the Christian humanists, maybe I would have gotten really interested in, let's say, the topic of Christianity and politics, and then found my way back to the scene -- so I could still find my way back even if a) and b) hold. But I guess if they do hold, then it's possible I will forget about the social element in question, and by default I will avoid it for some time just because of my decision to ignore it. But if they don't hold, then I probably shouldn't assume I'll stay away.

Maybe this is a useful thought to come out of studying past predictions? Maybe somewhat interesting.

I failed in predicting about what kind of writing I would do (book vs. blog). I think I was anchoring too much to how I felt at the time and what I was working on at the time. Should I learn from this not to do that? I think then I might not trust my instincts as much. I might stop sensing my intuitions in the first place, since I would know that they weren't that reliable in the long run.

A connection to the intuitive side of me is valuable, and I think worth protecting at some cost. So maybe as a trade-off, I will be somewhat bad at predicting my future, so that I can live in my current moment fully. I think I'm more likely to get social pressure toward representing myself and my future correctly. But I sometimes think that our society is too wise and does not care enough, and doesn't see with its own two eyes. It corrects itself toward accurate predictions rather than toward caring about what really matters. (Maybe there is a way to correct society toward caring?)

Why should I engage in predictions about my life? Maybe to get better at predicting, or update my model of the world? I think the impulse for me is more (in this moment) to have something to say about the future. Not to control it, as a plan or promise might, but just to relate to it. I guess I could list my hopes for the coming year instead of, or in addition to, my predictions. But hopes are heavy and loaded things. A prediction, especially one which is decorative rather than functional, is a lighter thing, simply a way to say words, have a somewhat casual relationship with the future.

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In terms of what was retrospectively surprising, the most notable thing to me was my new interest in Indonesia. I had no idea that I would become interested in it at the beginning of the year, and it has been a fairly significant interest.

Preview of 2023

In 2023, I can think of a few possible things to work on.

Songwriting: I wrote a lot of songs, some with words, over the past 2.5 years, as a side project or hobby, and am close to recording a demo of an album (or it may well be the final version). I have a lot more material I could finish writing and recording, and I think it likely enough that I will continue to have new ideas.

Similarly with poetry.

I will probably write some blog posts, occasionally.

I hope to release an old book I've alluded to here on the blog.