2021 to 2022

Review of 2021:

In the first half of 2021, I finished the X-Risk and the The Feeling of Value book reviews and EA population ethics reading list that I mentioned at the beginning of last year. I also wrote a review of Warranted Christian Belief.

I wrote other blog posts through June. Toward the end of June, I became more active on Twitter. I found the "Christian humanist" online scene (people into high church conservatism concerned with the relationship between Christianity and politics, and also human nature). I responded to a vocal member of the scene with Establishedness and Loving God, in September. Then in October and November, I transitioned toward non-blog writing projects. I had begun writing a book on "the cross" in the summer, and in the fall added two other projects: a more organized and developed explanation of MSLN and a Bible commentary. I worked on them in December.

Comparison of expectations with reality

My predictions last year were conservative, and came true. (I finished the reviews, did start reading and reviewing Principles of Human Knowledge by Berkeley, and started one more EA reading list.) I did develop MSLN more.

In terms of things that are retrospectively surprising, the most notable is finding the Christian humanists and finding myself writing a book-length blog post in response to them. I have had thoughts relating to politics in the past, but didn't see it as a core part of what I would write about. At this point, I realize that beyond Establishedness and Loving God, I may not be qualified to say much more in that space, so that might be the high-water mark of my writing on politics. However, part of me thinks that the subject is important, and that explaining how MSLN relates to policymaking and governance is actually very important in the long run. If AGI doesn't kill us all, politics may remain or grow more important in the future, because human decision-making could constrain how the AGI behaves (it having been trained to be our servant, or it respecting our values so much that it respects our value of us having agency as decision-makers). However, as important as I think social and political theory from an MSLN perspective is, I may or may not be the person to do that writing.

Preview of 2022:

The most obvious thing to predict, which I see ahead, is that I will continue to work on my writing projects (the cross book, MSLN book, and Bible commentary). I find myself writing less for the blog in the last few months and expect that will continue, although I may still write some posts, if it seems necessary to put a particular idea out there.

I don't feel as interested in the Christian humanists and don't see myself interacting with them much (unless perhaps I get a reply to Establishedness and Loving God). In December I made some contact with an EACH member (Christian effective altruism group) and think that I might try to interact with them some in 2022.

The Bible commentary is a long project which I think will be no more than 25% done by this time next year (at a most optimistic realistically possible estimate). I might have the MSLN book done by this time next year. (Or as done as I can make it without feedback. Given the kind of writing it is, it might need a lot of work once I get feedback.) I may not work on the cross book too much this coming year (mainly gathering sources).